Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 11, 2023: Rates Rise Again

The dip last week that took 30-year mortgage rates to a two-month low is now fully erased. With another notable bump up Monday, the flagship average has risen a third of a percentage point across the last three days. Most other averages also increased Monday, including the 15-year average once again surpassing the 6% threshold.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Adding another tenth of a percentage point Monday, the 30-year rate average is back up to 6.81%, representing a third of a point multi-day increase since hitting a two-month low of 6.47% last week. Rates on 30-year loans continue to yo-yo in a range between the five-month low of 6.11% notched in February and the 20-year peak of 7.58% recorded in October.

Monday's 15-year rate average climbed a similar 11 basis points, returning to 6% territory with a reading of 6.03%. Like 30-year rates, 15-year rates are also wavering between February's five-month low of 5.23% and October's 15-year high of 7.03%.

Movement was minimal Monday among jumbo rates, however. For a second day, the jumbo 30-year average marked time at 5.77%. That keeps it half a percentage point below October's 12-year-high average of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates moved a bit more modestly Monday than new purchase rates. The 30-year refi average rose a mild 5 basis points and the 15-year refi average, 8 points. Once again the jumbo 30-year refi average held steady. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 27 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.