Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 14, 2023: Rates Edge Lower

Movement among most mortgage rates Thursday ranged from flat to slightly down. Jumbo rates were among the non-movers, while the 30-year average shed less than a tenth of a point.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Thirty-year mortgage rates shed another 8 basis points Thursday. After a bigger drop Wednesday, the flagship average has given up almost a quarter point, just a few days after hitting 6.83% early in the week. It now sits at 6.59%, keeping it squarely in the range between early February's five-month low of 6.11% and October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

The 15-year average also edged down Thursday, by a minor 4 basis points. Now averaging 5.87%, 15-year rates have also been moving around between recent high and low marks: 7.03% in October, a 15-year peak, and 5.23% in February, a five-month low.

For a fifth day, jumbo 30-year rates were flat. At 5.77%, the jumbo 30-year average is holding steady within half a percentage point of October's 12-year-high of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates moved even less than new purchase rates Thursday. The 30-year refi average dipped just 1 basis point and the 15-year refi average subtracted 4 points, while jumbo 30-year refi rates again marked time. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 40 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.