Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 17, 2023: Rates Jump

Mortgage rates as a whole decidedly climbed Friday, with every average up and all but the 5/6 ARM average rising by double-digit basis points. The 30-year average clawed back most of what it had lost in its two-day midweek dip, and is now a tenth of a percentage point above where it ended the previous Friday.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

After subtracting 24 basis points over two days last week, Friday's 30-year mortgage average jumped, adding back 22 points. Ending the week at 6.81%, the flagship average has been bobbing around for more than two months in a range between February's five-month low of 6.11% and October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Friday's 15-year average meanwhile gained 16 basis points to rise back above the 6% mark. Like 30-year rates, the 15-year average has been wavering between a February low point and an October high point. The current average of 6.03% is just slightly closer to the five-month low of 5.23% registered about two months ago than to the 15-year peak of 7.03% reached in October.

After marching in place for a full week, jumbo 30-year rates finally showed some action. Gaining 13 basis points to reach 5.90%, the jumbo 30-year average is back to its highest mark since March 29, and is just slightly more than a third of a point below October's 12-year-high of 6.27%.

Friday's refinancing rates also moved up for every loan type, though the 30-year refi average climbed a less dramatic 11 basis points. Similar to their new purchase counterparts, the 15-year and jumbo 30-year refi averages each climbed 13 basis points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 29 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.