Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 19, 2023: Rates Move Higher

Rates for several mortgage types climbed again Tuesday, with only a few averages declining and most jumbo averages holding firm. Rates on 30-year and 15-year loans moved enough to take those averages to their most expensive level in five weeks.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average rose for a third consecutive day Tuesday, adding another 9 basis points for a three-day ascent of 37 points, but remaining under the notable 7% threshold. The average is now 6.96%, which is its highest reading since March 14, and squarely within in its range between February's five-month low of 6.11% and October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Tuesday's 15-year average also climbed, adding an even bigger 14 basis points to reach 6.24%. Like the 30-year average, it's the highest level for 15-year rates since March 14, and continues a bobbing pattern between the five-month low of 5.23% seen in February and a 15-year high of 7.03% registered in October.

Jumbo 30-year rates marched in place for a second day Tuesday. Holding at 5.90%, the jumbo 30-year average is sitting at its highest mark since March 29, which is only roughly a third of a point cheaper than October's 12-year-high of 6.27%.

Tuesday's refinancing rates moved somewhat similarly to their new purchase counterparts. The 30-year refi average added a bolder 15 basis points while the 15-year average climbed 12 points. The jumbo 30-year refi average again was flat. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 34 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.