Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 3, 2023: Rates Still Calm

Rates on 30-year loans barely moved Friday, continuing a pattern of minimal movements that characterized most of last week. The rate averages on almost all other loan types were also flat or nearly flat, with only a few variable-rate products showing a moderate change.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average slipped a minimal basis point Friday, lowering to 6.76% to end a week that began with a major jump but then only mildly fluctuated. The flagship average is hovering between the 20-year peak of 7.58% reached in October and the five-month low of 6.11% seen in early February.

Rates on 15-year loans also registered a minor dip Friday, dropping the average 3 basis points. Landing at 5.98%, the 15-year average is up about two-tenths of a point over the week due to a leap on Monday. It is currently wavering between the 15-year high of 7.03% seen in October and the 5.23% low valley of early February.

Friday's jumbo 30-year average meanwhile held steady at 5.77%. That leaves it half a percent cheaper than October's 12-year-high average of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates were slightly more mixed Friday than new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average gaining 3 basis points while the 15-year refi average shed 4 points. Jumbo 30-year refi rates were flat like their new purchase counterparts. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 28 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.