Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - April 7, 2023: Rates Steady

After notably sinking mid-week, most mortgage averages were calm Thursday. The 30-year average rose a couple of basis points, but still sits near its lowest point in two months. Most other averages showed just minor movements as well, though jumbo 30-year rates rose an eighth of a point.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages reclaimed two basis points Thursday, a day after sinking a substantial 16 points. The flagship average is now 6.49%, keeping it near its lowest level since the beginning of February. Thirty-year fixed rates are still more than a full percentage point below the 20-year peak of 7.58% registered in October, while sitting just a bit above the five-month low of 6.11% seen in February.

The 15-year rate average moved even less Thursday, dipping a single basis point. The current 15-year reading of 5.72% is its cheapest average since February 3, and is far closer to the five-month low of 5.23% seen in February than to the 15-year high of 7.03% recorded in October.

Meanwhile, jumbo 30-year rates showed a more substantial change Thursday, adding back the 13 basis points they subtracted the day before. At 5.77%, the jumbo 30-year average is just half a percentage point under October's 12-year-high average of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates moved roughly in line with Thursday's new purchase rates. The 30-year and 15-year refi averages each gave up 2 basis points, while the jumbo 30-year refi average gained 13 points like its new purchase counterpart. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 35 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude on May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.