Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - December 13, 2022: Rates edge down

30-year average continues to waver in range above 6.5%

MR1213

After modestly gaining to end last week, mortgage rates stepped downward Monday. The 30-year average has been bobbing up and down in a range between 6.5% and 6.7% for more than a week.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.66% 7.06%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.00% 7.48%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% 5.78%
15-Year Fixed 5.92% 6.22%
5/6 ARM 6.92% 7.06%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2022.11.29

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The yo-yo pattern for 30-year rates continued Monday, with a minor dip of three basis points after climbing Thursday and Friday. Since the end of November, when rates briefly revisited 7% territory, the flagship 30-year average has risen and fallen between 6.50% and 6.69%. Currently at 6.66%, the average is sitting more than nine-tenths of a percentage point below October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans were almost flat Monday, subtracting a single basis point to settle at 5.92%. That takes the current average 1.11% under its peak last month of 7.03%, which was its highest mark since 2007.

Jumbo 30-year rates were quiet for a second day Monday. Holding steady at 5.77%, the Jumbo average is half a percentage point below the 12-year high of 6.27% it registered in mid-October.

Refinancing rates for 30-year loans moved opposite new purchase rates Monday, climbing a moderate eight basis points. But 15-year and Jumbo 30-year rates were close to flat, with the 15-year refi average giving up two points and the Jumbo 30-year refi average a single point. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 40 basis points more expensive than a new purchase 30-year loan.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall dramatically outdid the summer high, with late October's 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.66% -0.03
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.00% -0.05
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.94% -0.10
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% No change
20-Year Fixed 6.29% -0.01
15-Year Fixed 5.92% -0.01
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% +0.01
10-Year Fixed 5.93% +0.01
10/6 ARM 6.85% +0.15
7/6 ARM 6.85% +0.14
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.61% No change
5/6 ARM 6.92% +0.14
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.69% No change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.06% +0.08
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.48% -0.13
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.51% -0.07
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.78% +0.01
20-Year Fixed 6.59% No change
15-Year Fixed 6.22% -0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No change
10-Year Fixed 6.28% -0.07
10/6 ARM 7.14% +0.24
7/6 ARM 6.98% +0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.69% No change
5/6 ARM 7.06% +0.21
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.69% No change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place December 13-14.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.