Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - December 15, 2022: Rates rise

30-year average rises back up to near 6.5%

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After sinking about a quarter point earlier this week and registering their lowest point in three months, Wednesday saw 30-year mortgage rates rise slightly back up, returning the average to almost 6.5%.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.49% 6.76%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.89% 7.27%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.64% 5.65%
15-Year Fixed 5.81% 5.93%
5/6 ARM 6.87% 6.94%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2022.12.15

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

After seeing a major decline Tuesday of 24 basis points, rates on 30-year mortgages reclaimed seven of those points Wednesday. Rising back up to 6.49%, the flagship average has returned to the 6.5% range where it has wavered much of the last two weeks. The current average is still 1.09% below October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans climbed similarly Wednesday, adding eight basis points to return to 5.81%. Like the 30-year average, the 15-year average is more than a full percentage point (1.22%) cheaper than its October high-water mark of 7.03%, which was a peak not seen since 2007.

The Jumbo 30-year average meanwhile remained flat Wednesday, holding at 5.64%. Though not as far under its fall peak as the 30-year and 15-year averages, Jumbo 30-year rates are reading two-thirds of a percentage point lower than their 12-year high of 6.27%, also notched in mid-October.

Refinancing rates moved similarly Wednesday compared to new purchase rates, with the 30-year and 15-year refi averages rising approximately a tenth of a point while Jumbo 30-year refi rates held steady. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 36 basis points more expensive than a new purchase 30-year loan.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall dramatically outdid the summer high, with late October's 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.49% +0.07
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.89% +0.14
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.84% +0.04
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.64% No change
20-Year Fixed 6.09% +0.10
15-Year Fixed 5.81% +0.08
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.89% +0.12
10-Year Fixed 5.79% +0.07
10/6 ARM 6.77% -0.13
7/6 ARM 6.78% -0.08
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.48% No change
5/6 ARM 6.87% -0.06
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.56% No change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.85% +0.09
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.42% +0.15
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.44% +0.08
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.65% No change
20-Year Fixed 6.45% +0.22
15-Year Fixed 6.03% +0.10
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% +0.12
10-Year Fixed 6.02% +0.08
10/6 ARM 6.92% -0.14
7/6 ARM 6.87% -0.06
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.56% No change
5/6 ARM 6.96% +0.02
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.56% No change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place December 13-14.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.