Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - February 10, 2023: Rates mixed

Different averages moved different directions, but most of the movement was minor

MR0210

For a third consecutive day, rates on 30-year mortgages have inched lower. But after surging to a four-week high to start the week, the flagship average is still in elevated territory.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.56% 6.78%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.56% 6.80%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.52% 5.52%
15-Year Fixed 5.92% 6.22%
5/6 ARM 6.77% 6.84%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2023.02.08

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages edged slightly lower Thursday, subtracting just two basis points. After accumulating minor dips the last three days, the average is down to 6.56%. Still, that's almost half a percentage point higher than the five-month low of 6.11% that was recorded last week. It's also more than a percentage point cheaper than the 20-year high of 7.58% reached in October.

Fifteen-year rates moved the other way Thursday, but also by a minor increment. Tacking on four basis points, the 15-year average is now 5.92%, which is in its highest range since early January. The 15-year average currently sits more than 1.1% under its mid-October average of 7.03%, a 15-year high.

Jumbo 30-year rates meanwhile continue to seesaw by an eighth of a percentage point, this time declining 12 basis points to return the average to 5.52%. The Jumbo 30-year average has yo-yoed between 5.40% and 5.64% for more than a month, and the current average is three-quarters of a point cheaper than its 12-year high of 6.27%, also registered in October.

Refinancing rates for 30-year and 15-year loans moved a bit more boldly Thursday than new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average dipping eight basis points and the 15-year refi average climbing nine points. The Jumbo 30-year refi average gave up an eighth of a percentage point, like its new purchase equivalent. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 22 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase loans.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.56% -0.02
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.56% No Change
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.30% No Change
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.52% -0.12
20-Year Fixed 6.17% -0.14
15-Year Fixed 5.92% +0.04
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No Change
10-Year Fixed 5.88% +0.04
10/6 ARM 6.58% -0.10
7/6 ARM 6.70% +0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.58% No Change
5/6 ARM 6.77% +0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.56% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.78% -0.08
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.80% -0.06
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.00% -0.02
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.52% -0.12
20-Year Fixed 6.52% -0.04
15-Year Fixed 6.22% +0.09
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.18% +0.07
10/6 ARM 6.79% -0.07
7/6 ARM 7.11% -0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.69% No Change
5/6 ARM 6.84% -0.03
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.56% No Change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude March 22.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.