Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - February 11, 2022: Rates surge higher

Mortgage rates leap to 2019 levels, with 30-year average well above 4%

Mortgage rates have already been on a tear throughout this new year, and Thursday saw them bolt even higher. Most averages are now the highest they've been in more than two years.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 4.16% 4.21%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.05% 4.14%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.90% 3.92%
15-Year Fixed 3.44% 3.63%
5/1 ARM 3.04% 3.09%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.02.11 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

After just barely crossing into 4% territory Wednesday, the 30-year mortgage average rose an eye-popping 15 basis points Thursday, pushing it well above the notable threshold. The dramatic surge, adding to an incline that's been building most of 2022, takes the 30-year average to 4.16%, which is its highest reading since the middle of 2019.

Rates on 15-year loans have generally followed a similar path this year, and gained a whopping 21 basis points Thursday. At 3.44%, the 15-year average is likewise in territory not seen since mid-2019.

Jumbo 30-year rates gained a lesser eight points Thursday, landing at 3.90%. Though they have not climbed quite as dramatically this calendar year as the 30-year and 15-year averages, Jumbo 30-year rates are now 43 basis points more expensive than their highest 2021 level.

All three averages have seen enormous increases since early August, when a major dip sank most rates to five-month lows. The 30-year average is currently 1.27 percentage points more expensive than the August low, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 1.23 and 0.84, respectively.

Refinance rates for 30-year and 15-year loans behaved somewhat similarly Thursday, with the 30-year average rising 12 points while the 15-year surged 33 points. The Jumbo 30-year refinance average remained flat, however. The cost to refinance fixed-rate loans is currently 2 to 24 points higher than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.16% +0.15
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.05% +0.11
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.26% +0.13
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.90% +0.08
20-Year Fixed 4.00% +0.17
15-Year Fixed 3.44% +0.21
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.44% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.60% +0.36
10/1 ARM 3.21% +0.10
10/6 ARM 4.48% +0.08
7/1 ARM 3.20% +0.10
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.99% +0.10
7/6 ARM 4.60% +0.19
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.15% +0.12
5/1 ARM 3.04% +0.10
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.84% +0.10
5/6 ARM 4.71% +0.33
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.11% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.21% +0.12
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.14% +0.10
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.50% +0.24
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.92% No Change
20-Year Fixed 4.06% +0.17
15-Year Fixed 3.63% +0.33
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.62% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.68% +0.14
10/1 ARM 3.26% +0.11
10/6 ARM 4.53% +0.17
7/1 ARM 3.25% +0.10
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 3.04% +0.10
7/6 ARM 4.63% +0.13
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.42% +0.12
5/1 ARM 3.09% +0.10
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.89% +0.10
5/6 ARM 4.65% +0.17
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.29% No Change

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Jan. 26, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it is sticking to its plan to speed up the timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a large increment each month. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held March 15-16.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.