Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - February 15, 2023: Rates steady

Mortgage rates were a mixed bag Tuesday. The 30-year average was flat after big gains the previous two days, but the 15-year average declined slightly while Jumbo rates notably increased.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year loans marched in place Tuesday, holding at a 6.83% average after rising 27 basis points across Friday and Monday. The 30-year average is holding at its highest level since the first few days of 2023, and after dipping to a five-month low of 6.11% earlier this month. Relative to the 20-year high of 7.58% notched in mid-October, however, the current average is still three-quarters of a percentage point cheaper.

Rates on 15-year mortgages gave up a little ground Tuesday. Dipping four basis points, the 15-year average is now 6.14%, which is also near a five-week high. Still, current 15-year rates are almost nine-tenths of a point below the 7.03% peak touched in October, which was a 15-year high.

Jumbo 30-year rates meanwhile jumped higher. Tacking on 13 basis points for a second consecutive day, the Jumbo 30-year average is up to 5.90%, its highest mark since January 5. The current average is now only 37 basis points under its 12-year high of 6.27%, also registered in October.

Tuesday's refinancing rates moved somewhat similarly to new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average shedding just a single basis point and Jumbo 30-year refi rates rising an identical 13 basis points. The 15-year refi average diverged more substantially, giving up a full tenth of a percentage point. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 17 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase loans.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude March 22.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.