Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - February 18, 2022: Rates hover

Most mortgage averages wavering slightly below recent highs

Mortgage averages continue to chisel down the peaks they reached last week, when rates touched their highest levels since mid-2019. While 30-year rates showed a minimal dip Thursday, the 15-year average dropped more significantly.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 4.20% 4.25%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.09% 4.20%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.92% 3.92%
15-Year Fixed 3.39% 3.47%
5/1 ARM 3.23% 3.27%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.02.16 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average has held relatively flat this week, shedding one basis point Thursday to 4.20%. That makes five consecutive days of single-point movements, after last week surging to 4.22%, the average's highest reading in two and half years.

Rates on 15-year loans have generally followed a similar upwards trajectory this year, though they dropped a bolder seven points Thursday. At 3.39%, the 15-year average is now a tenth of a percentage point below the peak of 3.49% set last week.

Jumbo 30-year rates saw a micro movement upwards Thursday, rising one point to 3.92%. Jumbo rates have not climbed quite as dramatically this year as the 30-year and 15-year averages, though today's average is 45 basis points above its 2021 high-water mark of 3.47%.

All three averages have seen enormous increases since August, when a major dip sank most rates to five-month lows. The 30-year average is currently 1.31 percentage points more expensive than the August trough, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 1.18 and 0.86, respectively.

Refinance averages behaved similarly Thursday, with 30-year and Jumbo 30-year refinance rates barely moving, while the 15-year average shed seven points. The cost to refinance the most common fixed-rate loans is currently up to 11 points more expensive than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.20% -0.01
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.09% -0.03
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.49% -0.14
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.92% +0.01
20-Year Fixed 4.02% -0.02
15-Year Fixed 3.39% -0.07
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.57% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.34% -0.04
10/1 ARM 3.39% -0.04
10/6 ARM 4.45% +0.02
7/1 ARM 3.38% -0.03
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 3.17% -0.04
7/6 ARM 4.38% -0.03
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.15% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.23% -0.03
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 3.02% -0.03
5/6 ARM 4.41% -0.10
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.11% -0.12
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.25% -0.01
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.20% -0.06
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.76% +0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.92% No Change
20-Year Fixed 4.08% -0.03
15-Year Fixed 3.47% -0.07
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.75% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.40% -0.06
10/1 ARM 3.44% -0.03
10/6 ARM 4.45% +0.02
7/1 ARM 3.43% -0.03
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 3.23% -0.03
7/6 ARM 4.42% -0.03
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.43% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.27% -0.04
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 3.07% -0.03
5/6 ARM 4.47% -0.12
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.29% -0.12

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Jan. 26, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it is sticking to its plan to speed up the timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a large increment each month. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held March 15-16.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.