Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - January 10, 2022: Rates extend surge

Another rise Friday takes almost every average to highest level since April 2020

After mortgage rates bolted upwards Thursday, with the 30-year average jumping an eye-popping 15 basis points, the flagship rate rose an additional four points Friday. Almost every average has exceeded its highest point of 2021, with most returning to levels not seen since since early in the pandemic.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 3.62% 3.73%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.49% 3.71%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.44% 3.62%
15-Year Fixed 2.72% 2.84%
5/1 ARM 3.31% 3.56%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
Rate ranges 2022.01.10

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

On the heels of the Federal Reserve releasing minutes Wednesday from its most recent rate-setting meeting, mortgage rates exploded higher to end the week. The 30-year fixed-rate average climbed almost two-tenths of a percentage point across just Thursday and Friday, ending at 3.62%. That easily eclipses any average seen last year, and matches highs not seen since April 2020.

The 15-year average has also climbed substantially, by four points Friday to add to Thursday's 10-point gain, ending at 2.71% to surpass every 15-year average since early pandemic days. Meanwhile, the Jumbo 30-year rate held steady Friday after climbing 12 basis points Thursday. At 3.44%, the Jumbo 30-year average still sits a bit below last year's high-water mark of 3.47%.

Compared to early August, when a major rate dip took most averages to five-month lows, the 30-year average is now a whopping 73 basis points more expensive, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 50 and 38 points, respectively.

Refinance rates behaved similarly Friday, with the 30-year refinance average rising by four points to 3.73%, which is now well above last year's high of 3.58%. The cost to refinance fixed-rate loans is currently 11 to 18 points higher than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.62% +0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.49% +0.02
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.58% +0.07
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.44% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.42% +0.04
15-Year Fixed 2.71% +0.04
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.31% +0.12
10-Year Fixed 2.72% +0.05
10/1 ARM 3.16% -0.30
10/6 ARM 4.15% +0.08
7/1 ARM 2.98% -0.18
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.41% +0.03
7/6 ARM 4.23% -0.02
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 2.83% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.31% +0.06
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.26% +0.03
5/6 ARM 4.25% -0.06
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.86% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinancing
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.73% +0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.71% +0.07
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.86% +0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.62% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.56% +0.04
15-Year Fixed 2.84% +0.06
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.50% +0.13
10-Year Fixed 2.85% +0.05
10/1 ARM 4.00% -0.02
10/6 ARM 4.31% +0.06
7/1 ARM 3.78% +0.01
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.71% +0.04
7/6 ARM 4.39% +0.08
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.11% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.56% +0.06
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.56% +0.04
5/6 ARM 4.55% +0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.04% No Change

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Dec. 15, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it will speed up its timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a larger increment each month than initially planned. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held Jan. 25-26.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.