Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - January 12, 2022: Rates continue climb

Mortgage rates extend their dramatic week-long ascent to early pandemic levels

Mortgage rates inched higher Tuesday, with their fourth consecutive ascent raising both the 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate averages about three-tenths of a point higher than a mere week ago. Almost every mortgage average has exceeded its highest point of 2021, and most have returned to levels not seen since since early in the pandemic.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 3.72% 3.84%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.65% 3.94%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.44% 3.62%
15-Year Fixed 2.87% 2.99%
5/1 ARM 3.17% 3.52%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.01.12 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

In the time since the Federal Reserve released minutes last week from its December rate-setting meeting, mortgage rates have exploded higher. The 30-year fixed-rate average added another two basis points Tuesday, taking it 29 points above last Wednesday's average, and 34 points higher than where it ended the year. At 3.72%, the flagship average is at its highest level since April 2020.

Rates on 15-year loans have been on a similar tear, with that average also gaining two points Tuesday for a total climb of 32 points since year-end 2021. Like the 30-year average, the 15-year average of 2.87% is the highest we've seen since early pandemic days.

Meanwhile, the Jumbo 30-year rate has shown fewer dramatic increases this year, and held flat for a third consecutive day Tuesday. At 3.44%, the Jumbo 30-year average still sits a bit below 2021's high-water mark of 3.47%.

Compared to early August, when a major rate dip took most averages to five-month lows, the 30-year average is now an eye-popping 83 basis points more expensive, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 66 and 38 points, respectively.

Refinance rates behaved similarly Monday, with the 30-year average rising three points, the 15-year one point, and the Jumbo 30-year remaining unchanged. Like new purchase rates, the 30-year and 15-year refinance averages have exceed their 2021 highs, while the Jumbo 30-year refinance average still sits lower. The cost to refinance fixed-rate loans is currently 12 to 18 points higher than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.72% +0.02
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.65% -0.01
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.79% +0.13
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.44% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.50% -0.03
15-Year Fixed 2.87% +0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.31% No Change
10-Year Fixed 2.86% No Change
10/1 ARM 3.66% +0.21
10/6 ARM 4.20% +0.07
7/1 ARM 3.25% +0.28
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.44% +0.01
7/6 ARM 4.32% +0.05
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 2.96% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.17% -0.11
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.29% +0.01
5/6 ARM 4.26% -0.15
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.86% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinancing
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.84% +0.03
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.94% +0.13
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.04% +0.07
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.62% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.65% -0.01
15-Year Fixed 2.99% +0.01
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.50% No Change
10-Year Fixed 2.99% +0.01
10/1 ARM 4.04% +0.01
10/6 ARM 4.37% +0.01
7/1 ARM 3.82% +0.01
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.74% +0.02
7/6 ARM 4.40% +0.01
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.23% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.52% +0.02
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.59% +0.02
5/6 ARM 4.21% -0.34
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.04% No Change

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Dec. 15, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it will speed up its timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a larger increment each month than initially planned. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held Jan. 25-26.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.