With another notable decline Thursday, the 30-year mortgage average is down almost two-thirds of a percentage point versus a week ago, and has hit its lowest point since mid-September.
|National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates|
|FHA 30-Year Fixed||6.45%||7.14%|
|Jumbo 30-Year Fixed||5.52%||5.53%|
Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages
For the first time since September 12, the 30-year mortgage average has registered below 6.40%. Another eighth of a point drop Thursday took the average down to 6.35%. That's compared to 6.99% one week ago. It's also far below October's 20-year high of 7.58%.
Rates on 15-year loans plunged even more dramatically Thursday, giving up a full third of a percentage point to rest at 5.44%, also a four-month low. The 15-year average is now more than 1.5 percentage points cheaper than its fall peak of 7.03%, which was its highest level since 2007.
After holding steady for three days, Jumbo 30-year rates shed an eighth of a point Thursday. Currently reading 5.52%—again a fourth-month low—the Jumbo 30-year average is currently three-quarters of a percentage point under its 12-year high of 6.27%, similarly registered in October.
Thursday's refinancing rates declined roughly in line with new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average giving up 14 basis points, the 15-year average 26 points, and the Jumbo 30-year refi average 12 points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is now 26 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase loans.
After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.
The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.
|National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase|
|New Purchase||Daily Change|
|FHA 30-Year Fixed||6.45%||-0.22|
|VA 30-Year Fixed||6.66%||-0.05|
|Jumbo 30-Year Fixed||5.52%||-0.12|
|Jumbo 15-Year Fixed||5.77%||No Change|
|Jumbo 7/6 ARM||5.48%||No Change|
|Jumbo 5/6 ARM||5.44%||-0.12|
|National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance|
|Loan Type||Refinance||Daily Change|
|FHA 30-Year Fixed||7.14%||-0.01|
|VA 30-Year Fixed||7.29%||-0.04|
|Jumbo 30-Year Fixed||5.53%||-0.12|
|Jumbo 15-Year Fixed||5.78%||No Change|
|Jumbo 7/6 ARM||5.56%||No Change|
|Jumbo 5/6 ARM||5.44%||-0.13|
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What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.
But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.
The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude February 1.
The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.
For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.