Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - January 18, 2022: Rates edge up

30-year average rises slightly, but still sits in four-month low range

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After plunging last week and then pausing Friday, rates on 30-year loans inched up Tuesday. With the rise modest, however, the flagship average still registers below 6.5% and is sitting near its four-month low.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.42% 6.71%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.66% 7.20%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.52% 5.53%
15-Year Fixed 5.53% 5.83%
5/6 ARM 6.71% 6.96%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2023.01.16

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Tuesday saw 30-year mortgage rates rise seven basis points, bringing the average back up to 6.42%. Last week's 6.35% reading was the first time the 30-year average had dipped below 6.40% since mid-September. The current average is still 1.16% cheaper than October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans climbed more substantially Tuesday, adding 12 basis points to reach back above 5.5%. Now at 5.53%, the 15-year average sits 1.5 percentage points under its fall peak of 7.03%, which was its most expensive level in 15 years.

Jumbo 30-year rates similarly gained an eighth of a percentage point, rising Tuesday to 5.52%. Compared to its own October peak, the Jumbo 30-year average is now three-quarters of a percentage point below the 12-year high of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates moved relatively similarly to new purchase rates Tuesday, with the 30-year refi average gaining a bolder 11 points and both the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year refi averages adding an eighth of a percentage point. The cost to refinance for 30 years is now 29 basis points pricier than 30-year new purchase loans.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.42% +0.07
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.66% +0.12
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.79% +0.07
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.52% +0.12
20-Year Fixed 6.02% +0.11
15-Year Fixed 5.53% +0.12
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% +0.13
10-Year Fixed 5.54% +0.10
10/6 ARM 6.81% +0.23
7/6 ARM 6.95% +0.27
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.48% +0.12
5/6 ARM 6.71% +0.07
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.44% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.71% +0.11
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.20% +0.07
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.56% +0.18
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.53% +0.13
20-Year Fixed 6.26% +0.13
15-Year Fixed 5.83% +0.13
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% +0.12
10-Year Fixed 5.87% +0.11
10/6 ARM 6.85% +0.08
7/6 ARM 7.01% +0.18
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.56% +0.12
5/6 ARM 6.96% +0.05
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.44% No Change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude February 1.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.