Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - January 31, 2022: Rates rise further

30-year average climbs again, reaching highest level since March 2020

After bolting higher Thursday to reach a two-year high, mortgage rates rose further still on Friday. Continuing its notably upward trend of 2022, the 30-year average has climbed to its highest level since spring 2020.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 3.87% 3.93%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.80% 3.88%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.65% 3.67%
15-Year Fixed 3.07% 3.12%
5/1 ARM 2.81% 2.85%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.01.31 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Mortgage rates have seen dramatic increases in 2022, and the 30-year average is still ascending. After leaping 11 points higher Thursday, Friday saw the average add another four basis points, taking it to 3.87%. The flagship average is now almost a half percentage point more expensive than the top average of 2021, and is the highest reading since March 2020.

Rates on 15-year loans have followed a similar trajectory in the new year, and increased five points Friday to reach 3.07%. Like 30-year rates, the current 15-year average is at a level not seen since the early days of the pandemic.

Though Jumbo 30-year rates have shown fewer dramatic surges this year, they are starting to catch up. Increasing two points Friday after an 11-point jump Thursday, the average is currently 3.65%, well above its 2021 high-water mark of 3.47%.

Compared to early August, when a major rate dip sank most averages to five-month lows, today's rates are substantially higher. In fact, the 30-year average is almost a full percentage point more expensive, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 86 and 59 points, respectively.

Refinance rates moved incrementally lower Friday, with the 30-year refinance average shedding two points, the 15-year losing just a point, and Jumbo 30-year refinance average holding steady. Like new purchase rates, the 30-year and 15-year refinance averages have this year moved substantially above their 2021 highs, while the Jumbo 30-year average is still about an eighth of a percentage point cheaper. Friday's cost to refinance fixed-rate loans was 2 to 15 points higher than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.87% +0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.80% +0.05
VA 30-Year Fixed 3.97% +0.18
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.65% +0.02
20-Year Fixed 3.68% +0.09
15-Year Fixed 3.07% +0.05
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.32% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.03% +0.07
10/1 ARM 2.98% +0.17
10/6 ARM 4.73% +0.51
7/1 ARM 2.97% +0.17
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.76% +0.17
7/6 ARM 4.21% +0.12
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 2.91% No Change
5/1 ARM 2.81% +0.17
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.61% +0.17
5/6 ARM 4.23% +0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.84% +0.02
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinancing
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 3.93% -0.02
FHA 30-Year Fixed 3.88% -0.08
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.12% -0.07
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.67% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.77% -0.02
15-Year Fixed 3.12% -0.01
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.50% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.06% No Change
10/1 ARM 3.02% -0.09
10/6 ARM 4.75% +0.22
7/1 ARM 3.01% -0.09
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 2.81% -0.08
7/6 ARM 4.45% -0.04
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.18% +0.01
5/1 ARM 2.85% -0.08
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.66% -0.08
5/6 ARM 4.34% +0.06
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 2.89% -0.01

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Jan. 26, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it is sticking to its plan to speed up the timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a large increment each month. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held March 15-16.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.