Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 28, 2023: Rates Rise

30-year mortgage average reverses recent course with a sharp increase.

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After significant drops last week, 30-year loan rates changed direction on Monday, jumping 22 basis points. Almost every other mortgage average followed the upward trend as well, punctuated with a notable spikes in 5/6 ARMs of 49 basis points and FHA 30-year fixed rates of 36 basis points.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.79% 7.14%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.55% 7.02%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% 5.77%
15-Year Fixed 5.93% 6.19%
5/6 ARM 7.10% 7.27%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2023.03.23

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average rose 22 basis points on Monday, erasing much of the previous two-day's drop of 35 points. Now averaging 6.79%, 30-year rates are still cheaper than the 20-year peak of 7.58% experienced last October but considerable higher five-month low of 6.11% from last month.

Rates on 15-year loans also jumped on Monday, moving 18 basis points from it's 5.75% level on Friday to 5.93%. The 15-year average is moving back in the region its high of 7.03% seen in October and a full 70 basis points above its 5.23% low reading in the first days of February.

Once again, the Jumbo 30-year average was flat, holding at 5.77% for a fourth consecutive day. Jumbo 30-year rates are currently half a percent cheaper than October's 12-year high average of 6.27%.

Monday's refinancing rates moved upward in similar increments with new purchase rates. The 30-year refi average also climbed 22 basis points, while the 15-year refi average jumped even more by 28 points. Jumbo 30-year refi rates continued to remain flat for a fourth day. The cost to refinance for 30 years remains 35 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.79% + 0.22
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.55% + 0.36
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.35% + 0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% No Change
20-Year Fixed 6.43% + 0.29
15-Year Fixed 5.93% + 0.18
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No Change
10-Year Fixed 5.92% + 0.22
10/6 ARM 6.88% + 0.17
7/6 ARM 7.03% + 0.23
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.71% + 0.13
5/6 ARM 7.10% + 0.49
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.81% + 0.12
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.14% + 0.22
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.02% + 0.27
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.20% + 0.40
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% No Change
20-Year Fixed 6.90% + 0.25
15-Year Fixed 6.19% + 0.28
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.14% + 0.27
10/6 ARM 7.09% + 0.18
7/6 ARM 7.41% + 0.42
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.81% + 0.12
5/6 ARM 7.27% + 0.35
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.81% + 0.12

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.

Article Sources
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  1. Federal Reserve Board of Governors: FOMC Meeting Calendar

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