Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 30, 2023: Rates Inch Higher

After increasing only one point on Tuesday, the 30-year fixed rate remained largely flat again yesterday, adding only two points. Most other fixed-term mortgage averages moved up in modest amounts as well. Adjustable mortgage rates did see notable upward movement, led by the 5/6 ARM increasing 28 basis points to 7.56%

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage average continued to remain relatively flat for a second day, increasing a mere two basis points. At 6.82%, the 30-year rate is still considerably lower than the 20-year peak of 7.58% reached in October 2022 but it has risen considerably since February when the rate was as low as 6.11%.

Rates on 15-year fixed rate loans edged up only slight again yesterday as well, increasing another 3 basis points to 6.05%. The 15-year average has tacked on 30 basis points this week, though, and stands at a full 82 basis points above its 5.23% low point reached in February.

The Jumbo 30-year average did increase 13 basis points yesterday, breaking a five day consecutive streak of being unchanged but remains 37 basis points less than October's 12-year high average of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates were relatively flat on Wednesday, with the exception of a 13 point increase in the Jumbo 30-year refi rates and upward movement in adjustable mortgage refi rates for 10/6 and 5/6 ARM terms. The cost of a 30-year fixed rate refi stands at 25 basis points more expensive relative to the purchase rate of the same term.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude May 3, 2023.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.