Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 8, 2022: Rates yo-yo

Mortgage averages continue pattern of big daily swings

For more than a week, mortgage rates have moved only in big daily increments—some days up, others down. Monday continued the bobbing trend with the 30-year average rising close to a tenth of a point.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 4.15% 4.24%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.04% 4.18%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.84% 3.80%
15-Year Fixed 3.38% 3.46%
5/1 ARM 3.19% 3.24%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.03.02 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

For a month now, the flagship 30-year average has bounced around above the 4% threshold, ranging up to a peak of 4.28% on Feb. 23. After ending last week at 4.05%, Monday saw the average climb back up by nine basis points, to 4.14%. In any case, the recent rate range is the highest registered since spring 2019.

Rates on 15-year loans rose similarly Monday, by eight points to 3.38%. Like 30-year rates, today's 15-year average is roughly an eighth of a point below its recent multi-year high of 3.49%.

Jumbo 30-year rates climbed a more modest four points Monday, clocking in at 3.84%. The Jumbo average has generally shown less dramatic movements this year than the 30-year and 15-year averages, but has still added more than a third of a percentage point over its 2021 high.

All three mortgage types have become much pricier since a major August dip sank rates to five-month lows. The 30-year average is currently 1.25 percentage points more expensive than the August valley, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 1.17 and 0.78, respectively.

Refinance rates behaved similarly Monday for 30-year and 15-year refi loans, with each average adding a tenth of a point, while the Jumbo 30-year refi average remained flat. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently up to 14 points more expensive than new purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.14% +0.09
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.04% +0.07
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.37% +0.17
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.84% +0.04
20-Year Fixed 3.89% +0.07
15-Year Fixed 3.38% +0.08
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.44% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.30% +0.08
10/1 ARM 3.36% +0.05
10/6 ARM 4.39% No Change
7/1 ARM 3.35% +0.05
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 3.14% +0.05
7/6 ARM 4.28% -0.02
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.02% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.19% +0.05
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 2.99% +0.05
5/6 ARM 4.38% +0.04
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.11% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 4.24% +0.10
FHA 30-Year Fixed 4.18% +0.11
VA 30-Year Fixed 4.66% -0.09
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 3.80% No Change
20-Year Fixed 3.97% +0.09
15-Year Fixed 3.46% +0.10
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 3.62% No Change
10-Year Fixed 3.37% +0.08
10/1 ARM 3.41% +0.05
10/6 ARM 4.38% No Change
7/1 ARM 3.39% +0.05
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 3.19% +0.05
7/6 ARM 4.46% -0.04
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 3.30% No Change
5/1 ARM 3.24% +0.05
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 3.04% +0.05
5/6 ARM 4.39% +0.06
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 3.29% No Change

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On Jan. 26, the Fed announced that, in light of stronger and more persistent inflation pressure than originally expected, it is sticking to its plan to speed up the timeline for throttling Fed bond buying, reducing the amount they purchase by a large increment each month. This so-called taper began in late November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held March 15-16.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.