Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - May 11, 2023: Rates Ease

Almost every mortgage average has moved notably downward


After climbing for four days, mortgage rates took a notable turn downward almost across the board Wednesday, with only the jumbo 15-year average held steady. The 30-year average meanwhile eased lower after flirting with a return to 7% territory Tuesday.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.91% 7.29%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.92% 7.41%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% 6.15%
15-Year Fixed 6.13% 6.33%
5/6 ARM 6.84% 7.03%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Wednesday's 30-year mortgage average subtracted half of what it added over the previous four days. Dipping eight basis points, the flagship average has backed away from the 7% threshold and is down to 6.91%. That's still well above the five-month low of 6.11% registered in February, but much cheaper than October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans moved similarly Wednesday, declining nine basis points to 6.13%. The current 15-year average is at the exact midpoint between its February five-month low of 5.23% and its 15-year high of 7.03% reached in October.

After two days of matching a 12-year high of 6.27%, which was last seen in October, jumbo 30-year rates dropped back an eighth of a point to 6.15% Wednesday. While jumbo ARM averages also gave up about an eighth of a point, the jumbo 15-year fixed rate average was flat.

Wednesday's 30-year refinancing average again moved more dramatically than for new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average sinking 19 basis points. The 15-year refi average moved down just six basis points and the jumbo 30-year refi average, an eighth of a point. The gap between 30-year new purchase and refi rates dropped to 38 basis points Wednesday.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.91% - 0.08
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.92% - 0.32
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.89% - 0.15
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% - 0.12
20-Year Fixed 6.67% - 0.09
15-Year Fixed 6.13% - 0.09
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.27% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.06% - 0.09
10/6 ARM 6.78% - 0.07
7/6 ARM 6.69% - 0.05
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.08% - 0.13
5/6 ARM 6.84% - 0.08
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.19% - 0.12
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.29% - 0.19
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.41% - 0.08
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.40% + 0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% - 0.12
20-Year Fixed 7.08% - 0.11
15-Year Fixed 6.33% - 0.06
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.27% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.23% - 0.10
10/6 ARM 7.21% - 0.11
7/6 ARM 7.14% - 0.10
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.19% - 0.12
5/6 ARM 7.03% + 0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.19% - 0.12

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. The next scheduled meeting will conclude on June 14.


The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.

Article Sources
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  1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "FOMC Meeting Calendar."

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