Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - May 13, 2022: Rates drop

Mortgage averages sink, extending their yo-yo pattern

The 30-year mortgage average dropped almost a quarter of a percentage point Thursday, taking it well below the 13-year high it notched ten days ago.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 5.41% 5.64%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 5.31% 5.70%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 4.94% 5.03%
15-Year Fixed 4.73% 5.05%
5/1 ARM 4.16% 4.46%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700-760, and no mortgage points.
2022.05.05 mort ranges

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages have shown notable daily swings for weeks, and Thursday's move was a large 23 basis points cheaper. The flagship average is now down to 5.41%, which is more than a third of a point below its recent peak of 5.76% peak, which in turn was its highest mark since 2009.

The 15-year average moved 15 points down Thursday, settling at 4.73%. Like 30-year loans, 15-year rates registered their highest level in 13 years just ten days ago. But the average now sits notably below that 5.16% high.

In contrast, Jumbo 30-year rates remained flat for a second day Thursday, holding at 4.94%. Unlike conventional 30-year and 15- year rates, the Jumbo 30-year average has not surpassed its April 2020 spike experienced early in the pandemic.

Still, all three averages have surged over the last nine months, taking them far above the rate valley enjoyed last summer when a major dip dramatically sank rates. The 30-year average is currently an eye-popping 2.52 percentage points more expensive than the August low point, while the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages are up 2.52 and 1.88, respectively.

Refinance rates moved almost identically Thursday, with the 30-year refi average shedding 21 basis points, the 15-year losing 15 points, and Jumbo 30-year refi rates holding steady again. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently nine to 39 points more expensive than purchase loans.

Important:

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 5.41% -0.23
FHA 30-Year Fixed 5.31% -0.31
VA 30-Year Fixed 5.23% -0.30
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 4.94% No Change
20-Year Fixed 5.27% -0.27
15-Year Fixed 4.73% -0.15
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 4.81% -0.13
10-Year Fixed 4.70% -0.16
10/1 ARM 4.64% -0.16
10/6 ARM 5.89% -0.02
7/1 ARM 4.49% -0.17
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 4.03% -0.16
7/6 ARM 5.51% +0.13
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 4.49% -0.12
5/1 ARM 4.16% -0.17
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 3.95% -0.17
5/6 ARM 5.83% +0.25
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 4.36% -0.12
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 5.64% -0.21
FHA 30-Year Fixed 5.70% -0.24
VA 30-Year Fixed 5.76% -0.17
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.03% No Change
20-Year Fixed 5.53% -0.34
15-Year Fixed 5.05% -0.15
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 4.90% -0.12
10-Year Fixed 5.10% -0.04
10/1 ARM 4.96% -0.33
10/6 ARM 6.26% +0.23
7/1 ARM 4.79% -0.21
Jumbo 7/1 ARM 4.31% -0.17
7/6 ARM 5.78% +0.14
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 4.67% -0.13
5/1 ARM 4.46% -0.16
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 4.24% -0.17
5/6 ARM 6.07% +0.24
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 4.43% -0.13

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, as well as individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

These rates are surveyed directly from over 200 top lenders.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August, and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every 6-8 weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will be held June 14-15.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700-760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700-760.