Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - May 9, 2023: Rates Climb

Most mortgage averages moved moderately higher Monday, with only a few averages shedding points. While the 30-year average again flirts with the 7% threshold, jumbo 30-year rates returned to the 12-year peak they reached in October.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average rose for a third day, though the modest increases sum to a minor eighth of a percentage point. Adding five basis points Monday, the flagship average is now up to 6.93%, continuing in a range between a February five-month low of 6.11% and an October 20-year high of 7.58%.

Monday's 15-year average climbed a stronger nine basis points to land at 6.16%. The 15-year average is roughly midway between a five-month low of 5.23% in February and a 15-year high of 7.03% in October.

Adding on to a 13-basis-point increase Friday, jumbo 30-year rates tacked on another 12 basis points Monday. The cumulative quarter-point rise has returned the jumbo 30-year average to 6.27%, a 12-year high last seen in October.

Monday's refinancing averages saw similar gains: the 30-year refi average added four basis points, the 15-year refi average climbed six points, and the jumbo 30-year refi average jumped 12 basis points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 35 basis points more expensive than 30-year new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge last September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. The next scheduled meeting will conclude on June 14.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.