Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - November 11, 2022: Rates plunge

Rates on 30-year mortgages had their biggest downward day on record, triggered by Thursday's latest inflation report. The flagship mortgage average plummeted close to a half percentage point and landed below 7% for the first time in five weeks.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

On the heels of Thursday's release of better-than-expected inflation data for the month of October, all of the financial markets moved in extreme fashion. For mortgage rates, that translated into an astounding plunge of 46 basis points for the 30-year loan average, which now sits at 6.87%. It's the first time since the early days of October that the average has come in under 7%, and it now sits almost three-quarters of a point below the recent 20-year high of 7.58%.

The 15-year average moved an identical 46 basis points lower Thursday. Now down to 6.20%, the 15-year average has taken almost seven-eighths of a point off its peak last month of 7.03%, which was its highest level since 2002.

Jumbo 30-year rates, meanwhile, showed less drama. Dropping just an eighth of a point to 6.02%, the current average is just a quarter percentage point below its recent 12-year low of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates sank similarly Thursday vs. new purchase rates, shedding 61 basis points for the 30-year refi average and 40 basis points for the 15-year average, while Jumbo 30-year refi rates declined a similar eighth of a point. The current cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is up to 68 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall has dramatically outdone the summer peak, with late October's 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points above the June high.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.