Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - November 17, 2022: Rates mixed

Rates moved in various up and down increments across mortgage products Wednesday. For its part, the 30-year flagship average inched modestly upward, after recently sinking to its cheapest level in eight weeks.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages held comfortably below 7% Wednesday, edging up just four basis points to 6.78%. The previous day's 6.74% average was its lowest level since September 22. Even with Wednesday's increase, the current average sits eight-tenths of a percentage point below October's 20-year high of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans also gained four basis points Wednesday, rising to 6.23%. Like its 30-year counterpart, the 15-year average has erased 80 basis points from its October peak as well. That 7.03% reading was its highest level since 2007.

The Jumbo 30-year average meanwhile declined Wednesday, shedding an eighth of a percentage point for a second day. Now averaging 5.77%, the Jumbo 30-year average sits half a point below its recent 12-year high of 6.27%.

Refinancing rates moved somewhat similarly Wednesday to new purchase rates. The 30-year and 15-year refi averages both climbed a bit more substantially, by eight and 10 basis points, respectively, while the Jumbo 30-year refi average dipped an eighth of a point. The current cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is up to 49 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall has dramatically outdone the summer peak, with late October's 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points above the June high.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.