Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - November 18, 2022: Rates creep back up

Mortgage averages were moderately up Thursday for almost all loan types, including a climb of 16 basis points for 30-year rates. Earlier this week, the flagship average had dropped to its lowest level since mid September.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average climbed back near 7% Thursday, adding 16 basis points to reach 6.94%. Though rates were cheaper earlier in the week, the 30-year average still sits almost two-thirds of a percentage point under the recent 20-year high of 7.58%.

Thursday's 15-year rates inched up only three basis points. Now at 6.26%, the 15-year average is more than three-quarters of a percentage point below its peak in October. That 7.03% reading represented its highest level in more than 15 years.

For their part, Jumbo 30-year rates Thursday added back the eighth of a point they subtracted the day before. The current average of 5.90% is 37 basis points under the 6.27% reading of late October, which was its most expensive level since 2010.

Refinancing rates moved very similarly to new purchase rates Thursday, with the 30-year refi average rising 18 basis points, the 15-year average six basis points, and the Jumbo 30-year refi average an eighth of a point. The current cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is up to 45 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall has dramatically outdone the summer peak, with late October's 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points above the June high.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.