Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - October 20, 2022: Rates rise again

30-year average bolts up a quarter point to flirt with last week's 20-year high

After spiking last week to 7.55%, the 30-year average first retreated about a third of a percentage point, but has now jumped back up to 7.47%.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 7.47% 7.82%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.38% 7.54%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% 6.15%
15-Year Fixed 6.93% 7.14%
5/6 ARM 6.97% 6.95%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2022.10.20

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

After registering a 20-year high of 7.55% last Thursday, but then retreating to 7.22% this week, 30-year mortgage rates are back on the rise. The flagship average surged a quarter percentage point higher Wednesday, to 7.47%.

Rates on 15-year loans were also solidly up, but by a lesser 14 basis points. It was enough, though, to set a new 14-year high of 6.93%, after last week peaking at 6.89%.

Jumbo 30-year rates, meanwhile, continued a yo-yo pattern of rising and falling by an eighth of a point. Wednesday's Jumbo average rose 13 basis points to return to 6.15%, its most expensive level since 2010.

Refinancing rates also moved boldly higher Wednesday, with the 30-year refi average rising almost a third of a percentage point. For its part, the 15-year refi average increased about a quarter point, and Jumbo 30-year refi rates, an eighth of a percentage point. Wednesday's cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan was up to 33 points higher than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in summer 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year, with the 30-year average hitting a mid-June peak almost 3.5 percentage points above its August 2021 floor of 2.89%. But September's two-week surge dramatically outdid this summer's high, with the 30-year average spiking 1.27 percentage points to reach 1.04 percentage points higher than June's peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.47% +0.25
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.38% +0.12
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.41% +0.12
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% +0.13
20-Year Fixed 7.45% +0.28
15-Year Fixed 6.93% +0.14
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.15% +0.13
10-Year Fixed 6.83% +0.14
10/6 ARM 7.26% -0.08
7/6 ARM 7.47% +0.30
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.98% +0.13
5/6 ARM 6.97% No change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.93% +0.12
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.82% +0.31
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.54% +0.14
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.56% +0.12
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% +0.12
20-Year Fixed 7.78% +0.26
15-Year Fixed 7.14% +0.23
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.15% +0.12
10-Year Fixed 7.04% +0.21
10/6 ARM 7.59% -0.12
7/6 ARM 7.88% +0.33
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.06% +0.12
5/6 ARM 6.95% +0.08
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.94% +0.12

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.