Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - October 27, 2022: Rates continue retreat

A third day of decline takes 30-year average to lowest level in three weeks

By Sabrina Karl
Published October 27, 2022

After establishing a new 20-year high on Friday, the 30-year mortgage average has sunk three days in a row, giving up almost four-tenths of a point so far this week.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 7.19% 7.44%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.12% 7.35%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% 6.15%
15-Year Fixed 6.82% 6.98%
5/6 ARM 7.00% 7.08%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.
2022.10.24

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Wednesday put more distance between current 30-year loan rates and Friday's 20-year peak. Dropping every day this week so far, the flagship average has come down 39 basis points to 7.19%, compared to Friday's reading of 7.58%, which was its most expensive mark in over 20 years.

Rates on 15-year loans also declined Wednesday, with the average lowering six basis points to 6.82%. Last week saw the 15-year average reach 7.03%, a level not seen since 2007.

After holding steady the previous three days, Jumbo 30-year rates dropped by an eighth of a percentage point Wednesday, to 6.15%. The average's recent peak of 6.27% is the highest reading for Jumbo 30-year loans in over 12 years.

Wednesday's refinancing rates moved similarly to new purchase rates for 30-year and Jumbo 30-year loans, with the 30-year refi average shedding nine basis points and Jumbo 30-year refi rates, 13 points. The 15-year refi average meanwhile moved modestly the other way, adding four points. The current cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is up to 39 basis points higher than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall is dramatically outdoing the summer peak, with the 30-year average having reached 1.2 percentage points above June's high.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.19% -0.06
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.12% -0.01
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.18% No change
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% -0.12
20-Year Fixed 7.15% -0.11
15-Year Fixed 6.82% -0.06
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.15% No change
10-Year Fixed 6.81% -0.02
10/6 ARM 7.33% -0.11
7/6 ARM 7.25% +0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.98% No change
5/6 ARM 7.00% +0.09
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.93% No change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.44% -0.09
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.35% -0.04
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.42% -0.12
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.15% -0.13
20-Year Fixed 7.54% +0.01
15-Year Fixed 6.98% +0.04
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.16% No change
10-Year Fixed 6.94% -0.02
10/6 ARM 7.36% +0.01
7/6 ARM 7.23% -0.01
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.06% No change
5/6 ARM 7.08% +0.03
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.94% No change

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.