Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - October 4, 2022: Rates dip

Mortgage rates start the week with 30-year average dipping back below 7%

Mortgage rates started off October with another move downward, taking the 30-year average almost a tenth of a percentage point under 7%. It was just a week ago when the flagship average notched a 20-year high in the mid-7% range.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.91% 7.22%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.04% 7.29%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.90% 5.90%
15-Year Fixed 6.54% 6.76%
5/6 ARM 6.58% 6.66%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

After registering an estimated 20-year high of 7.42% last Tuesday and then hovering around 7% for the next three days, 30-year mortgage rates took another step downward to start October. The 30-year average shed nine basis points Monday to land at 6.91%.

Rates on 15-year loans meanwhile inched up Monday, though by a minor two basis points to 6.54%. Like 30-year loans, 15-year rates had climbed more than a full percentage point in mid-September, notching a peak of 6.66% that is the average's highest reading since at least 2008.

For their part, Jumbo 30-year rates remained flat for a third day Monday, holding at 5.90%. Though not quite as historically elevated as the standard 30-year and 15-year averages, Jumbo 30-year rates had Tuesday reached their most expensive point since 2010, averaging 6.02%.

Monday's refinancing rates on 30-year and Jumbo 30-year loans moved similarly Monday to new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average dropping 10 basis points and Jumbo 30-year refi rates marching in place. The average on 15-year refi loans also declined, giving up seven basis points. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently zero to 33 points higher than new purchase loans.

After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022, with the 30-year average hitting a mid-June peak almost 3.5 percentage points higher than its August 2021 valley of 2.89%. But September's surge dramatically outdid the summer record, with the 30-year average spiking 1.27 percentage points over just 16 days to peak 1.04 percentage points above June's high-water mark.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.91% -0.09
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.04% -0.13
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.07% -0.17
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.90% No change
20-Year Fixed 6.84% -0.08
15-Year Fixed 6.54% +0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No change
10-Year Fixed 6.34% -0.02
10/6 ARM 6.92% -0.15
7/6 ARM 6.77% -0.08
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.60% -0.13
5/6 ARM 6.58% +0.05
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.69% No change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.22% -0.10
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.29% -0.10
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.31% -0.06
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.90% No change
20-Year Fixed 7.17% -0.18
15-Year Fixed 6.76% -0.07
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 5.90% No change
10-Year Fixed 6.55% -0.02
10/6 ARM 6.95% -0.37
7/6 ARM 7.03% -0.05
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.69% -0.12
5/6 ARM 6.66% -0.07
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.69% No change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.


The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.