Walmart Profit and Revenue Could Rise in Q4 on E-Commerce, Logistics Growth

Profit and revenue seen climbing as nation's largest retailer navigates tough macro environment

Shoppers walk the aisles of Wal-Mart for Black Friday deals

Jessica McGowan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Walmart likely will say adjusted EPS for Q4 FY 2023, ended in January, was $1.50, compared with $1.53 a year prior.
  • Revenue probably climbed 4% to a record high of $159.1 billion.
  • Retailers faced declining sales in December, usually a strong month given holiday spending, amid inflation and supply chain issues.
  • Walmart's rapid expansion of e-commerce and logistics operations likely helped fuel top- and bottom-line improvements during a challenging period.

Walmart Inc. (WMT), America's largest retailer, probably will say profit and revenue climbed for the fourth quarter despite inflation's dampening effect on holiday sales.

The retail giant is likely to say net income rose 13% from a year earlier to $4 billion, or $1.50 per adjusted share, according to analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Revenue could climb 4% to $159.1 billion, a company record. Walmart's fiscal year ends in January and it reports fourth-quarter results before markets open on Feb. 21.

Walmart's revenue growth was likely driven by its growing e-commerce business. The company has made e-commerce and delivery projects like Walmart GoLocal, Walmart Connect, and Spark Delivery a focus since 2020. Its e-commerce revenue is forecast to be $26.1 billion, almost double what it was three years ago.

Inflation caused an uncharacteristic 1.1% drop in U.S. retail sales in December from November. Sales bounced back in January, rising 3% in a sign that U.S. consumer finances are stronger than holiday spending would suggest.

Walmart, the country's largest private employer, is also contending with a historically tight labor market. Walmart pharmacies reduced their hours of operation in January because of staffing shortages. The company also said in January that it would raise its minimum wage for store employees to $14 per hour. The almost 20% pay increase will take effect in March and affect about 340,000 employees, according to a spokesperson.

Walmart shares rallied from May to November 2022. They have fallen slightly but remain up 10% in the last year, while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is down 2% in the same period.

One-Year Total Return for S&P 500 Consumer Staples and Walmart
Source: TradingView.
Walmart Key Statistics
  Estimate for Q4 FY 2023 Actual for Q4 FY 2022 Actual for Q4 FY 2021
Adjusted Earnings Per Share ($) 1.50 1.53 1.39
Revenue ($B) 159.1 152.9 152.1
Article Sources
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  1. Visible Alpha. "Financial Data."

  2. National Retail Federation. "Top 100 Retailers 2022 List."

  3. Walmart Inc. "FY2023 Q4 Earnings Release."

  4. U.S. Census Bureau. "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January 2023."

  5. CBS News. "CVS, Walmart and Walgreens to reduce pharmacy hours as staffing challenges persist."

  6. CNBC. "Walmart raises minimum wage as retail labor market remains tight."

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