Global equity markets traded sideways this past week, and U.S. equity markets closed the month under a bit of pressure as investors reckon with a rise in new COVID-19 cases and what it will mean for the economic recovery. All signs point to the pace of economic growth having slowed late in the second quarter, and companies are telling a similar tale in their quarterly reports.
As for those earnings reports, 59% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results to date, and 88% have reported actual earnings per share (EPS) above estimates. That's the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.
Next week, nearly one-third of companies in the Russell 3000 will report results, including widely-held companies like Uber, DraftKings, Marriott International, and Kraft Heinz. Hundreds of small-to-mid-cap companies across all sectors will also reports results. Those smaller public companies are very sensitive to changes in the economic temperature, so pay attention to their guidance for the rest of the year.
Here are the returns for major assets classes and Bitcoin, year-to-date.
- Manufacturing and Purchasing Managers surveys from the U.S., the EU, and the U.K. for the month of July are due for release on Monday.
- MGM, Uber, Roku, Kraft Heinz, Royal Caribbean Cruises and more will report earnings on Wednesday.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due for release on Friday, as well as unemployment rate figures from Canada.
Here are the returns for major asset classes and Bitcoin, so far this year.
Sunday August 1:
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (July).
Monday August 2:
- Market Holiday for the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).
- German Retail Sales (June).
- Italian Manufacturing PMI (July).
- French Manufacturing PMI (July).
- German Manufacturing PMI (July).
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (July).
- U.K. Manufacturing PMI (July).
- U.S. Manufacturing PMI (July).
- U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI (July).
- Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (July).
Tuesday August 3:
- Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) Reports Earnings.
- Marriott International (MAR) Reports Earnings.
- Brazilian Industrial Production (June).
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI (July).
- Japanese Services PMI (July).
Wednesday August 4:
- MGM Resorts International (MGM), Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER), Roku Inc. (ROKU), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Report Earnings.
- Italian Services PMI (July).
- French Services PMI (July).
- German Services PMI (July).
- U.K. Services PMI (July).
- U.S. Services PMI (July).
- U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (July).
- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)
- Brazilian Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
Thursday August 5:
- Virgin Galactic Corp. (SPCE), Square Inc. (SQ), and Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Report Earnings.
- German Factory Orders (June).
- U.K. Construction PMI (July).
- Bank of England Interest Rate Decision.
- U.S. Trade Balance (June).
- Japanese Household Spending (June).
Friday August 6:
- DraftKings (DKNG) Reports Earnings.
- Indian Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
- German Industrial Production (June)
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July).
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (July).
- Canadian Unemployment Rate (July).
Events Next Week
This week is all about manufacturing, industrial production and jobs. They are all bellwethers of the global economic recovery, and they are moving at different paces around the world.
Manufacturing and Industrial Production
On Monday, we'll get ISM Manufacturing and Purchasing Managers surveys from the U.S., the EU, and the U.K. for the month of July. While commodity prices have cooled a bit in recent months, they are still historically high, and we should expect to see their impact in these reports.
U.S. Vehicle Sales for July
On Monday, we'll see July vehicle sales numbers for the U.S. Auto sales slowed 14% in June compared to May as prices remain high—particularly for used cars and trucks, but borrowing costs remain low. U.S. consumers have pulled back on auto purchases amid high inflation, with sales falling from 17 million vehicles in May to 15.4 million in June. We'll see just how many people decided to purchase a new car last month.
July Jobs Reports
On Friday, we'll get the nonfarm payrolls report for the U.S., and the unemployment rate and report from Canada. Up in the Great North, the unemployment rate is 7.8%, and the labor force participation rate stands at 65.1%. The Canadian economy added 210,000 jobs in June, and more gains are expected for July.
In the U.S., June's better-than-expected job gains of 850,000 may have represented the turning point in the labor economy. Companies are still desperate for workers, and the labor force participation rate in this country remains historically low at 61.6%. But the rise in new COVID-19 cases and new economic restrictions may have kept more Americans from rejoining the labor force last month.