What to Expect in the Markets This Week

Services and manufacturing PMIs from the U.S. and around the world.

After a shortened trading week in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving holiday closures, markets will return to a full schedule next week, and investors can count on a robust set of data releases and earnings along with it. Companies will also continue to watch Thanksgiving sales, which extend through Cyber Monday. Those sales from Nov. 25 to Nov. 29 are projected to increase 12% from last year, led by middle-income households, according to a survey by Deloitte.

The nation’s debt limit will also come back into focus when Congress returns from its Thanksgiving recess. Last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had warned the nation could hit its debt limit by Dec. 3. On Tuesday, she wrote that lawmakers likely have until Dec. 15 to lift the debt limit, but that still only leaves Congress a few weeks to approve new funding. That timeline could collide with the Biden administration’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan, and stall the bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated in a letter to Democratic lawmakers that the Senate's schedule for the rest of the year could run longer than predicted.

The housing market will kick off the week’s data releases with pending home sales on Monday, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday. The Conference Board’s November reading for consumer confidence will follow, and we’ll get an update on how managers are feeling with manufacturing and services PMIs from the U.S. and around the world. We’ll also find out whether seasonal hiring ahead of the holidays boosted nonfarm payrolls for the month of November on Friday. 

Key Takeaways

  • The National Association of Retailers will release its U.S. pending home sales report for the month of October on Monday.
  • The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the month of September will be out on Tuesday.
  • We’ll get an update on manufacturing and services PMIs from the U.S. and around the world.
  • On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reports nonfarm payrolls for the month of November.

Here are the returns for major asset classes and Bitcoin year-to-date:

Events Calendar:

Monday November 29:

  • Cyber Monday
  • NAR Pending Home Sales (October)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)
  • EA Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence (November)

Tuesday November 30:

  • Salesforce (CRM), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and NetApp (NTAP) report earnings. 
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September)
  • Consumer Board Consumer Confidence Index (November)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)
  • EA Inflation Rate (November)

Wednesday December 1:

  • Snowflake (SNOW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Synopsys (SNPS), Veeva Systems (VEEV), ZScaler (ZS), Okta (OKTA), Splunk (SPLK), and PVH Corp (PVH) report earnings. 
  • ADP Employment Change (November)
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (November)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)
  • U.S. Construction Spending (October)
  • U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (November)
  • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting 
  • EA Markit Manufacturing PMI, Final (November)
  • India Markit Manufacturing PMI (November)

Thursday December 2:

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL), Dollar General (DG), DocuSign (DOCU), Kroger (KR), Asana (ASAN), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) report earnings. 
  • China Caixin Services PMI (November)
  • ECB General Council Meeting
  • EA Unemployment Rate (October)
  • EA Producer Price Index (October)

Friday December 3:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (November)
  • Markit Services PMI (November)
  • EA Markit Services PMI, Final (November)
  • EA Retail Sales (October)
  • India Markit Services PMI (November)

Real Estate Releases

The National Association of Retailers (NAR) will release its U.S. pending home sales report for the month of October on Monday, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the month of September will be out on Tuesday. Pending home sales have been on the decline since June, as demand for homes outpaces limited supply, and that trend is likely to have continued, after the NAR reported last week that inventories of available units got even tighter last month. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks prices of single-family homes across several of the largest cities in the U.S., and is expected to show that prices remain elevated amid rising costs and shortages of raw materials. 

Manufacturing and Services PMI

The manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) offer insights into how managers are feeling across a wide swath of industries. In the U.S., the outlook has stayed positive, with flash readings for manufacturing rising from 58.4 to 59.1 and services slightly decreasing from 58.7 to 57 in November. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion. We’ll also get similar updates from the eurozone, India, and China. Last month, surveys indicated managers in the world’s second largest economy weren’t feeling as stoked as prices, as China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in October, amid rising costs and energy disruptions. And when China gets sticker shock, so do other countries depending on it for supplies.  

Nonfarm Payrolls

We’ll also find out whether seasonal hiring has impacted the number of jobs added in November with the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. Retailers including Target, Walmart, and ecommerce giant Amazon have said they intend to hire thousands of new seasonal employees, and are offering a range of added benefits to attract new recruits. We’ll see if that boosted hiring, after U.S. employers added 531,000 jobs last month, with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality sector as the economy reopens.