What to Expect in the Markets Next Week

Coming up next week: home prices, consumer confidence, PCE price index

U.S. equity markets tumbled this week, with the Dow briefly falling into bear market territory and closing at a new 2022 low as concerns about recession risks rose after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) to curb inflation. For the week, the Dow declined 4% and the S&P 500 shed 4.7%, while the Nasdaq contracted 5%. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in over a decade. The inversion of the yield curve deepened, as the yield on the two-year note rose above 4.2%, in a sign of growing pessimism regarding the near-term health of the economy. Oil prices fell on Friday as global recession fears and a stronger dollar—which rose to multi-decade highs against the euro and pound—rattled global energy markets. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 5% to $79 per barrel, its lowest level since early January.

Investors can expect several key economic updates in the week ahead. On Tuesday, the latest reports on the housing market will become available, with the release of August new home sales and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) will offer updates on consumer sentiment. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its final estimate for second quarter GDP growth. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will arrive on Friday. Nike, Micron Technology, Carnival Corporation, and Bed Bath & Beyond will be among companies reporting earnings.

It’s also worth noting that next week is the final week of the third quarter, with Friday being the final trading day of September—historically one of the worst months of the year for stocks. Through 182 trading days so far this year, 2022 has seen the fifth-worst start of any year in history for U.S. equities.

Key Takeaways

  • Corporate earnings reports are expected from Nike, Micron Technology, CarMax, Carnival Corporation, and Bed Bath & Beyond, among others
  • S&P Global will release its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index on Tuesday, showing the monthly change in housing prices for July
  • Updates on consumer sentiment are expected, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) on Tuesday and Friday, respectively
  • The final reading for second-quarter U.S. GDP growth is expected Thursday, along with growth in corporate profits and consumer spending during the second quarter
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred measure of inflation—will be updated Friday, tracking price growth in August
  • A key inflation update for the eurozone is expected on Friday

Events Calendar:

Monday, September 26

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

Tuesday, September 27

  • Ferguson PLC (FERG) and BlackBerry Ltd. (BB) report earnings
  • Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index (Jul)
  • New Home Sales (Aug)
  • CB Consumer Confidence Index (Sep)

Wednesday, September 28

  • Paychex Inc. (PAYX), Cintas Corp. (CTAS), and Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) report earnings
  • Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
  • Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
  • Pending Home Sales (Aug)

Thursday, September 29

  • Nike (NKE), Micron Technology (MU), CarMax (KMX), Carnival Corporation (CCL), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Rite Aid Corporation (RAD) report earnings
  • U.S. GDP Growth Rate - Final Reading (Q2 2022)
  • Corporate Profits (Q2 2022)
  • PCE Prices (Q2 2022)
  • Real Consumer Spending (Q2 2022)
  • Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (Sep)

Friday, September 30

  • Personal Income and Spending (Aug)
  • PCE Price Index (Aug)
  • Chicago PMI (Sep)
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Final Reading (Sep)
  • Euro Area Inflation Rate - Flash Reading (Sep)
  • U.K. GDP Growth Rate - Final Reading (Q2 2022)

Global Central Bank Policy Meetings

On Tuesday, S&P Global will release its latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index, tracking national home prices. Price growth is likely to have decelerated further in July, after prices rose a mere 0.4% in June—marking the slowest growth rate in two years. Home price growth peaked in March and has slowed since, as rising mortgage rates and declining affordability weigh on prospective buyers. Prices were up 18% in June from a year ago, with annual gains expected to decelerate as well. Also on Tuesday, mortgage originator Freddie Mac will release its House Price Index (HPI) for July. Prices had climbed 0.1% in June, the slowest gain since May of 2020, with annual price growth decelerating to an annual rate of 16.2%, down from a peak of 19.3% in February.

Consumer Confidence Readings

On Tuesday, The Conference Board (CB) will release the September update to its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which measures consumers’ optimism regarding their personal finances and state of the economy. Preliminary estimates are projecting a slight increase in consumer confidence, to 104 from 103.2 in August. The University of Michigan will release the final September reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) on Friday. Economists are projecting an unchanged index reading at 59.5, compared to 58.2 in August and an all-time low of 50 in June. Consumer sentiment improved slightly in early September, as gas prices fell and future inflation expectations moderated. However, the index remained near its all-time lows, as persistently high inflation continues to impact sentiment.

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