Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimate adjusted EPS of $1.16 vs. $0.92 in Q2 FY 2021.
  • The number of customers contributing over $100,000 in 12-month trailing revenue is expected to rise at robust pace YOY.
  • Revenue is forecast to rise, but at a slower pace after last year's rapid expansion amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Zoom Video Communications Inc. (ZM) has experienced astronomical growth over the past year as remote work and distance learning took off during the pandemic, prompting millions of people to rely on its video communication platform. But that rate of growth is starting to fade as the economy reopens. To bolster growth, Zoom agreed in July to acquire Five9 Inc. (FIVN), a provider of cloud-based customer-service software. The deal is expected to enhance engagement between Zoom's high-revenue enterprise clients and their customers.

Investors will be focusing on whether Zoom can continue to maintain its high rates of earnings and revenue growth when the company reports earnings on August 30, 2021 for Q2 FY 2022. The company's 2021 fiscal year (FY) ended Jan. 31, 2021. Analysts expect both adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue to rise year over year (YOY), but at a much slower pace than in recent quarters.

Investors will also be watching the number of Zoom customers contributing over $100,000 in 12-month trailing (TTM) revenue. This key metric provides an indication of the number of larger enterprises utilizing Zoom's platform. These customers tend to represent stable, longer-term revenue streams than smaller customers. Analysts expect the number of customers contributing over $100,000 in revenue to expand YOY, but at a slower pace than in recent quarters.

Shares of Zoom have underperformed the broader market over the last year. The stock had been outperforming during the first half of the past year, soaring to a recent peak in mid-October 2020. It then began a long descent, gradually falling back in line with the rest of the market's performance by early March 2021. The stock has alternated between under- and outperformance ever since. Zoom's shares have provided a total return of 16.3% over the past year, below the S&P 500's total return of 30.6%.

One Year Total Return for S&P 500 and Zoom
Source: TradingView.

Zoom Earnings History

Zoom reported Q1 FY 2022 earnings that beat consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS rose 566.4% compared to the year-ago quarter, crushing analysts' expectations. However, it marked a continued deceleration after growing at a pace of 1,055.6% in the third quarter of FY 2021. Revenue for the quarter grew 191.4% YOY, slowing from the previous quarter's rapid pace. Slowing growth is to be expected after the previous year's incredible expansion and as the economy begins to reopen. However, remote work and distance learning are likely not going away any time soon considering the continued risks posed by the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus.

Zoom dramatically beat analysts' earnings expectations in Q4 FY 2021. Adjusted EPS rose 723.2% YOY, decelerating from the previous quarter's pace. Revenue expanded 368.8% compared to the year-ago quarter, the fastest pace out of any quarter in at least the past three years. The quarter capped off an unprecedented year for Zoom as it significantly expanded its business to provide critical video communication services to customers during the pandemic.

Analysts expect another strong quarter for Zoom in Q2 FY 2022, but growth is expected to continue slowing. Adjusted EPS is expected to rise 25.1% YOY, which would be the slowest pace in three years. Revenue is forecast to increase 49.3%, which would be the slowest pace of growth in at least 14 quarters. For full-year FY 2022, analysts expect adjusted EPS to rise 39.5%, which would be the slowest pace since FY 2019. Annual revenue is forecast to grow 51.1%, which would be the slowest rise in at least four years.

Zoom Key Stats
  Estimate for Q2 2022 (FY) Q2 2021 (FY) Q2 2020 (FY)
Adjusted Earnings Per Share ($) 1.16 0.92 0.08
Revenue ($M) 990.3 663.5 145.8
Customers Contributing Over $100K in 12-Month Trailing Revenue 2,169 988 466

Source: Visible Alpha

The Key Metric

As mentioned above, investors will also be watching the number of customers contributing over $100,000 in revenue over the previous 12 months. The size of this customer group provides a measure of two key capabilities: Zoom's ability to scale its offerings to its users' needs, and the company's ability to attract larger organizations to its platform. Large customers are likely to be a more stable source of revenue compared to individuals or smaller organizations who may switch more frequently to other video conferencing services. Securing contracts with large enterprises will be especially important as the global economy emerges from the pandemic and as many people begin returning to their company offices to work and students return to classrooms. Zoom's planned acquisition of Five9, a transaction valued at approximately $14.7 billion, is expected to improve the company's ability to appeal to enterprise customers. The transaction is expected to close during the first half of calendar year 2022.

The number of Zoom's customers contributing more than $100,000 in TTM revenue has expanded rapidly in just a few years. The company reported a total of 184 such customers at the end of the first quarter of FY 2019. That number has expanded nearly elevenfold in just three years, reaching a total of 1,999 at the end of Q1 FY 2022. Despite an ever-increasing base of large customers, Zoom has maintained a high and fairly consistent pace of growth over those three years. However, analysts expect growth to slow throughout the rest of the current fiscal year. The number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in TTM revenue is expected to rise at a pace of 119.6% YOY in Q2 FY 2022, slowing from the previous quarter's pace of 160.0% YOY. Growth is forecast to continue to decelerate, slowing to a pace of 84.8% YOY in Q3 and 61.1% YOY in Q4. The pace of growth expected in the fourth quarter would be the slowest out of any quarter in at least the past four years.